Various return periods were derived in the study such as 20, 50, 100, 200 and 500 year return periods (RPs). These wind fields show the probability of any given magnitude that may occur in any given year. The regional severe wind hazard generated for the tropical cyclones that passed through the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) are expressed in terms of return periods. Historical tropical cyclone dataset from 1951 – 2017 archived of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) were also utilized. The model output is combined with the analysis of the observed maximum wind speed (3-second peak gust) to adjust the various return periods (RPs) of maximum wind gust, which are determined using a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Powell (2005) parametric wind field and Kepert (2001) boundary layer models were employed for each tropical cyclone.įurthermore, the wind speeds from all events are fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to determine an average recurrence interval or annual exceedence probability for a given wind speeds. The model uses statistical and parametric models to simulate the behavior of thousand years of cyclonic activities. In order to generate the regional severe wind hazard, the Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM), developed by Geoscience Australia (GA) was used. This does not take into account the local factors such as topography, terrain roughness and shielding from neighboring structures.
The Regional Severe Wind Hazard map represents the 3-second peak gust wind speed measured at 10-meter height (above ground) over open and flat terrain.